Ep. 27 - My 2026 Industry Predictions

Every year around this time (September), I plan out my entire year from January to December. I reverse-engineer everything based on what happened this year and my goals for next year, and I get it all onto my calendar. Because if it's not on my calendar, it's not going to happen.

And every single time, I have these thoughts: "I bet this is going to happen next year" or "I've noticed that thing happening—if we continue in that direction, our clients are going to love it (or hate it)."

So I always pause and ask myself: Where is our industry headed? Is there going to be a big shift in one direction or another?

These predictions are based on my own spa experience as an owner, what I'm seeing my coaching clients experience, and what my peers are going through.

Some of these might feel exciting. Some might feel a little uncomfortable. But they're all things I want you to keep an eye on, because the businesses who see the wave before it crashes are going to be the ones that win.

Prediction #1: Employee-Based Spas Are Going to Make a HUGE Comeback

In 2020, when the world shut down, tons of estheticians made the decision to go solo. They wanted that sense of control, safety, and independence.

The hard truth (based on the Bureau of Labor and Statistics): About half of all businesses fail within the first five years. And here we are, five years later, post-pandemic.

What are we seeing? A lot of these solo estheticians—who are fantastic at what they do—are tired. They're feeling lost, maybe a little broken. They're wondering, "What the heck did I get myself into?"

They don't want to wear every hat anymore. They don't want to worry about every single expense—payroll, rent, marketing, supplies, every client.

In this last round of hiring, I did something I've never done before: I hired two estheticians who were solo and decided to come work for me. They dissolved their businesses. I bought any supplies they had left over and hired them on as W2 employees.

The relief I saw in their shoulders—they were smiling. When I first encountered them, they seemed exhausted, completely run down. But now? It's been a year, and they are SO happy. They are SO booked.

The sentence I kept hearing from my girls: "This is the only thing I see myself doing for the rest of my life. So this has to work."

You're providing that safety net, that security. And these solos are realizing that ownership wasn't actually the freedom they were looking for—it was exhaustion. What they really wanted was to show up, love on their clients, go home, and get paid.

If you're going to build a team-based spa, these next two years are going to be your moment. The talent pool is about to grow a ton.

Prediction #2: AI Will Create a Divide Between Who's Successful and Who Struggles

AI is everywhere. People are no longer saying "Just Google it." They're saying "Chat GPT it."

Like it or not, it's here. And you have a choice: fight it or learn it and adopt it.

With AI, you can basically get an entire week's worth of things done with just a few hours of focus time. That's a HUGE advantage for any owner stretched thin.

But here's the ripple effect: AI is eliminating entire industries. Layoffs are happening. And this matters because our clients are people with disposable income who may suddenly not have it anymore.

I think we're going to really start seeing that in 2026—probably springtime—and it's not going to get better until probably the end of the year.

The main takeaway: Efficiency is great, but the real winners are going to be the ones who keep that human connection with their clients. Use AI to save yourself time so you can spend more time with your clients, but you cannot let it replace the real you.

For marketing specifically: I do not think it's a good idea to put any type of filter on your pictures. AI has gotten so good that we don't even know if a video is real or if a picture is real.

If you can just build trust with your clientele, you're going to win every single time. The more authentic you can be, the better.

Prediction #3: Strict Policies Are Going to Backfire

In 2020-2023, there was this huge boom. A bunch of spas closed down, so there was huge demand. We couldn't keep up. We got a little cocky. We created these super intense policies—100% charge every single time, no exceptions.

But the truth is, things happen. People get sick. And I don't want you to come in because you're afraid of a fee and then you get me (or my whole team) sick.

These complex, strict policies are going to drive clients away.

Now clients are over it. They're being more picky. They're voting with their wallets and walking away from spas that feel too rigid or unwelcoming.

These policies almost need to be customized per client. They're supposed to be there for the client who is consistently abusing your time—not the mom whose kid is sick.

In 2026, client experience is going to matter more than ever. Be professional, yes, but keep your systems client-friendly. Flexibility builds loyalty.

Prediction #4: Your Numbers Are Going to Make or Break You

Before, we could kind of get away with "this feels like the right number" or "I think I'll increase prices like $5—that feels right."

We cannot run a successful, profitable business off feelings alone.

In 2026, it's going to expose the spas that don't have their numbers down.

If you're pricing your services or retail based on feelings instead of real data and profitability, your business is going to struggle.

The cost of goods is increasing. Payroll percentages are going up. People want to be paid more. That means your profit margins need to make sense so you can pay yourself AND your team can afford a livable wage.

Next year is going to be the year where spas that understand their numbers are really going to thrive. And the ones that don't are either going to burn out or close down completely.

Prediction #5: There's Going to Be a Boom of New Esthetician Talent

Gen Z and Generation Alpha are starting to realize they don't need to go to college to have a successful career. They can go to trade school—which is becoming more popular.

I talked to the local school near me. They had three cosmetologists enroll and 20 aesthetic students. That is insanity.

According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, skincare careers are growing faster than average, and schools are producing thousands of graduates every year.

That means more competition, more noise, but also more opportunity to lead if you differentiate your spa.

If you're an owner getting ready to mentor and absorb some of this new talent, focus on niching down and building a skill that can actually get the results clients want.

The Big Picture for 2026

Next year will test us. More employees are going back into spas. AI is changing how we work. Clients are getting more picky about where they spend their money. Knowing your numbers is no longer optional.

My encouragement: Don't get overwhelmed. Stay flexible. Stay open to feedback. Use these shifts as fuel. Be a sponge and a student, but more than that, actually apply what you're learning.

Lead with authenticity and build trust with your clients. Businesses that adapt fastest are going to be the ones that thrive.

Ready to start planning smarter for 2026?

Fill out this intake form to book a free discovery call with me. I'll help you map out the best moves for your specific spa in 2026.